https://www.facebook.com/rickky.spirewanderer/posts/3896042060463742

Ну что можно сказать? Коэффициент вранья примерно 3-5. Более-менее ожидаемо. :-/

Ну что можно сказать? Коэффициент вранья примерно 3-5. Более-менее ожидаемо. :-/
Мистер Пу защищается от вируса :-)
Mar. 31st, 2021 09:21 amhttps://www.bbc.com/russian/features-56581095

Плешивый карлик реально боится всего, что не может контролировать.

Плешивый карлик реально боится всего, что не может контролировать.
https://www.dw.com/en/israels-clever-coronavirus-vaccination-strategy/a-56586888
"...
According to the agreement, Israel pays significantly more than the EU for each vaccine dose of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine, reportedly about €23 ($28) per dose compared with the €12 paid by the EU.
In addition, the Israeli state retains product liability. The European Union, on the other hand, was very keen that BioNTech-Pfizer continue to be liable for the safety of the product.
Most importantly, Israel's government agreed with vaccine manufacturers to provide weekly data from the vaccination campaign to them. This includes infection and vaccination numbers, as well as patient demographics such as age and gender. The data is sent to Pfizer anonymously, according to Israeli officials.
Thanks to the digitized health care system in Israel, the pharmaceutical companies not only receive data quickly and reliably, but above all they get much more data than they would from any other study. It is an invaluable source of information for the pharmaceutical companies.
In return, the manufacturers committed to supplying Israel with vaccines until immunization of 95% of the population is achieved.
..."
Европейцы сэкономили 5 миллиардов. А потеряют, я подозреваю, намного больше. :-(
"...
According to the agreement, Israel pays significantly more than the EU for each vaccine dose of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine, reportedly about €23 ($28) per dose compared with the €12 paid by the EU.
In addition, the Israeli state retains product liability. The European Union, on the other hand, was very keen that BioNTech-Pfizer continue to be liable for the safety of the product.
Most importantly, Israel's government agreed with vaccine manufacturers to provide weekly data from the vaccination campaign to them. This includes infection and vaccination numbers, as well as patient demographics such as age and gender. The data is sent to Pfizer anonymously, according to Israeli officials.
Thanks to the digitized health care system in Israel, the pharmaceutical companies not only receive data quickly and reliably, but above all they get much more data than they would from any other study. It is an invaluable source of information for the pharmaceutical companies.
In return, the manufacturers committed to supplying Israel with vaccines until immunization of 95% of the population is achieved.
..."
Европейцы сэкономили 5 миллиардов. А потеряют, я подозреваю, намного больше. :-(
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/02/25/u-s-death-counts-have-climbed-for-all-adult-age-groups-actuary/
"...
From March 22, 2020, through Dec. 26, 2020, the ratio of the actual number of people who died in the United States to the expected number was 120%, Leavitt writes in the study.
In other words: The total number of deaths was about 20% higher than normal.
For all of 2020, the total number of deaths was about 14% to 16% higher than expected, according to Leavitt.
...
Here’s what the actual-deaths-to-expected-deaths ratios looked like for four age groups over that same period, according to Leavitt’s analysis of federal government data:
Under 15: 93.1%
15-34: 120.2%
35-64: 125.2%
65 and Older: 120%
..."
"...
From March 22, 2020, through Dec. 26, 2020, the ratio of the actual number of people who died in the United States to the expected number was 120%, Leavitt writes in the study.
In other words: The total number of deaths was about 20% higher than normal.
For all of 2020, the total number of deaths was about 14% to 16% higher than expected, according to Leavitt.
...
Here’s what the actual-deaths-to-expected-deaths ratios looked like for four age groups over that same period, according to Leavitt’s analysis of federal government data:
Under 15: 93.1%
15-34: 120.2%
35-64: 125.2%
65 and Older: 120%
..."
https://www.facebook.com/rickky.spirewanderer/posts/3826941614040454
"Краткие предварительные итоги 2020 года по смертности.
Взят линейный тренд числа умерших за 2015(иногда 2016)-2019 и экстраполирован на 2020.
Крупнейшие страны (от 35 млн.), прирост от тренда за весь 2020 и с апреля по декабрь (последние 3 квартала):
Мексика +37,0%, +46,8%
Испания +18,8%, +25,3%
Россия +19,8%, +24,2%
Колумбия не меньше +20% и +24%
Италия - нет данных за самые последние недели года, примерно +15,7% и +21,5%
Польша +15,6%, +20,8%
США +15,4%, +19,3%
Великобритания +14,5%, +18,9%
Бразилия +14,6%, +16,8%
Франция +8,0%, +11,7%
Украина +6,3%, +8,5%
Германия +3,4%, +5,7%
Южная Корея +1,1%, +1,2%
Япония -2,5%, -1,4%
Таиланд -2,6%, -3,2%
По Китаю, Индии данных нет, по Канаде нет за последние недели года"
"Краткие предварительные итоги 2020 года по смертности.
Взят линейный тренд числа умерших за 2015(иногда 2016)-2019 и экстраполирован на 2020.
Крупнейшие страны (от 35 млн.), прирост от тренда за весь 2020 и с апреля по декабрь (последние 3 квартала):
Мексика +37,0%, +46,8%
Испания +18,8%, +25,3%
Россия +19,8%, +24,2%
Колумбия не меньше +20% и +24%
Италия - нет данных за самые последние недели года, примерно +15,7% и +21,5%
Польша +15,6%, +20,8%
США +15,4%, +19,3%
Великобритания +14,5%, +18,9%
Бразилия +14,6%, +16,8%
Франция +8,0%, +11,7%
Украина +6,3%, +8,5%
Германия +3,4%, +5,7%
Южная Корея +1,1%, +1,2%
Япония -2,5%, -1,4%
Таиланд -2,6%, -3,2%
По Китаю, Индии данных нет, по Канаде нет за последние недели года"
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/virushalterna-i-avloppsvattnet-ar-skyhoga-och-sportlovet-har-inte-ens-borjat

В любом случае, я бы сейчас в Стокгольм не ехал. Как-то у нас сурово выглядят ближайшие перспективы. :-/
В любом случае, я бы сейчас в Стокгольм не ехал. Как-то у нас сурово выглядят ближайшие перспективы. :-/
"Третьей волны не будет. Не будет? ..."
Feb. 20th, 2021 08:37 amhttps://innersun.medium.com/%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%8C%D0%B5%D0%B9-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D1%8B-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%82-%D0%BD%D0%B5-%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%82-%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%82-%D0%B2-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B8-%D0%B2-%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B5-%D1%81-%D1%8D%D0%BF%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%B9-5619aa3b462f
Ну и в ту же копилку. Про Швецию. После 2-недельной давности сообщений о повышении содержания вируса в стоках:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/nu-okar-virushalterna-i-avloppsvattnet-igen
теперь есть и заболеваемость:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa/page/page_0/
То есть уже 3 недели тренд повышательный. Может, это и не третья волна, но уж точно вторая с половиной. :-/
Ну и в ту же копилку. Про Швецию. После 2-недельной давности сообщений о повышении содержания вируса в стоках:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/nu-okar-virushalterna-i-avloppsvattnet-igen
теперь есть и заболеваемость:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa/page/page_0/
То есть уже 3 недели тренд повышательный. Может, это и не третья волна, но уж точно вторая с половиной. :-/
https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1740-9713.01486

"...
Computing excess mortality in Russia from April to November (see “Estimating excess mortality”, page 19, for details) yields a grim result of 264,100 excess deaths (95% interval: [232,000, 296,200]) – see Figure 1.
..."
По наводке:
https://users.livejournal.com/vba-/650781.html

"...
Computing excess mortality in Russia from April to November (see “Estimating excess mortality”, page 19, for details) yields a grim result of 264,100 excess deaths (95% interval: [232,000, 296,200]) – see Figure 1.
..."
По наводке:
https://users.livejournal.com/vba-/650781.html
https://svabod1.azureedge.net/a/31023464.html
"Сёлета ў лістападзе ў Магілёве памерла ў 1,8 раза больш людзей, чым год таму, паведамляе Эўрарадыё са спасылкай на магілёўскі ЗАГС — адзіны ў краіне, які публікуе такую статыстыку.
За лістапад 2020 году, паводле ЗАГСу, зарэгістраваныя сьмерці прынамсі 577 чалавек, за лістапад 2019 году — 320. Розьніца — 257 чалавек. Як адзначае Эўрарадыё, складана патлумачыць яе нечым, акрамя COVID-19. Але паводле афіцыйнай статыстыкі Міністэрства аховы здароўя, па ўсёй Беларусі за лістапад 2020 году зафіксавана толькі 177 сьмерцяў, зьвязаных з каранавіруснай інфэкцыяй."
"Сёлета ў лістападзе ў Магілёве памерла ў 1,8 раза больш людзей, чым год таму, паведамляе Эўрарадыё са спасылкай на магілёўскі ЗАГС — адзіны ў краіне, які публікуе такую статыстыку.
За лістапад 2020 году, паводле ЗАГСу, зарэгістраваныя сьмерці прынамсі 577 чалавек, за лістапад 2019 году — 320. Розьніца — 257 чалавек. Як адзначае Эўрарадыё, складана патлумачыць яе нечым, акрамя COVID-19. Але паводле афіцыйнай статыстыкі Міністэрства аховы здароўя, па ўсёй Беларусі за лістапад 2020 году зафіксавана толькі 177 сьмерцяў, зьвязаных з каранавіруснай інфэкцыяй."
(no subject)
Dec. 19th, 2020 12:06 pmhttps://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1
"There is intense interest in antibody immunity to coronaviruses. However, it is unknown if coronaviruses evolve to escape such immunity, and if so, how rapidly. Here we address this question by characterizing the historical evolution of human coronavirus 229E. We identify human sera from the 1980s and 1990s that have neutralizing titers against contemporaneous 229E that are comparable to the anti-SARS-CoV-2 titers induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We test these sera against 229E strains isolated after sera collection, and find that neutralizing titers are lower against these "future" viruses. In some cases, sera that neutralize contemporaneous 229E viral strains with titers >1:100 do not detectably neutralize strains isolated 8-17 years later. The decreased neutralization of "future" viruses is due to antigenic evolution of the viral spike, especially in the receptor-binding domain. If these results extrapolate to other coronaviruses, then it may be advisable to periodically update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines."


По наводке:
https://www.facebook.com/veniamin.zaycev/posts/4428524250515633
"There is intense interest in antibody immunity to coronaviruses. However, it is unknown if coronaviruses evolve to escape such immunity, and if so, how rapidly. Here we address this question by characterizing the historical evolution of human coronavirus 229E. We identify human sera from the 1980s and 1990s that have neutralizing titers against contemporaneous 229E that are comparable to the anti-SARS-CoV-2 titers induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We test these sera against 229E strains isolated after sera collection, and find that neutralizing titers are lower against these "future" viruses. In some cases, sera that neutralize contemporaneous 229E viral strains with titers >1:100 do not detectably neutralize strains isolated 8-17 years later. The decreased neutralization of "future" viruses is due to antigenic evolution of the viral spike, especially in the receptor-binding domain. If these results extrapolate to other coronaviruses, then it may be advisable to periodically update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines."


По наводке:
https://www.facebook.com/veniamin.zaycev/posts/4428524250515633