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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/an-article-by-the-defence-secretary-on-the-situation-in-ukraine
"...
So, if one cold January or February night Russian Military forces once more cross into sovereign Ukraine, ignore the ‘straw man’ narratives and ‘false flag’ stories of NATO aggression and remember the President of Russia’s own words in that essay from last summer. Remember it and ask yourself what it means, not just for Ukraine, but for all of us in Europe. What it means the next time…"

https://tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/why-the-west-failed-on-ukraine
"...
Western leaders must come out of this world of illusions. Since Plato, we know that leaving the cave can be risky. But even more important are the dangers of refusing to accept the truth and of not getting out."

По тому, что происходит на данный момент, крупномасштабное вторжение планируется на начало-конец февраля.
Приказ на начало будет отдан, как только агентурные сведения дадут 90-95% вероятности, что спонсирование агрессора со стороны ЕС не прекратится. :-/

Скорее всего, будет атаковано одновременно несколько направлений с целями:
1) из Крыма до Днепра,
2) из РФ до Крыма,
3) от Черного моря до Приднестровья,
4) [как отвлекающий от Киева удар] Харьков,
5) Киев из Беларуси.
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https://www.svt.se/special/val-storbritannien-2019/

Ну то есть выбор, на мой вкус, был из разных сортов несъедобного.
Но в результате будет именно бессмысленное и беспощадное (вместо нерешительного ранее) залезание в нехорошее место.

Может, оно и к лучшему: раньше сядешь - раньше выйдешь. :-)
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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-office-minister-condemns-russia-for-notpetya-attacks

"Foreign Office Minister Lord Ahmad has today attributed the NotPetya cyber-attack to the Russian Government. The decision to publicly attribute this incident underlines the fact that the UK and its allies will not tolerate malicious cyber activity.

The attack masqueraded as a criminal enterprise but its purpose was principally to disrupt. Primary targets were Ukrainian financial, energy and government sectors. Its indiscriminate design caused it to spread further, affecting other European and Russian business.

Foreign Office Minister for Cyber Security Lord (Tariq) Ahmad of Wimbledon said:
The UK Government judges that the Russian Government, specifically the Russian military, was responsible for the destructive NotPetya cyber-attack of June 2017.

The attack showed a continued disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty. Its reckless release disrupted organisations across Europe costing hundreds of millions of pounds.

The Kremlin has positioned Russia in direct opposition to the West yet it doesn’t have to be that way. We call upon Russia to be the responsible member of the international community it claims to be rather then secretly trying to undermine it.

The United Kingdom is identifying, pursuing and responding to malicious cyber activity regardless of where it originates, imposing costs on those who would seek to do us harm. We are committed to strengthening coordinated international efforts to uphold a free, open, peaceful and secure cyberspace.

Notes to Editors:
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre assesses that the Russian military was almost certainly responsible for the destructive NotPetya cyber-attack of June 2017. Given this is the highest level of assessment and the broader context, the UK government has made the judgement that the Russian government was responsible for this cyber-attack."

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